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I’m originally from Dublin but now live in Edinburgh Whatever the result of the investigation, it will undoubtedly have a major impact on how Western multinationals try to build their guanxi on the mainland. As Wei Liqun, a professor of business at Hong Kong Baptist University, points out, “almost all famous banks and Fortune 500 firms try to recruit people with political connections in China.” If they can no longer target the children of the elite, it may hurt their ability to land deals in the short run. How much notice do you have to give? A few months ago, we had lunch with a friend who is a management consultant. He arrived at the restaurant raving about the fantastic experience he’d just had at the passport office on Hudson Street in lower Manhattan, where he’d gone for a need-it-by-tomorrow expedited passport.

Having booked an appointment by phone, he arrived to have his application materials checked by a greeter (lest his papers be out of order, which might hold up others later in the process), who then handed him a number and sent him to a waiting room. Five minutes later, his number was called, and he was asked to hand in his paperwork. Then he was on his way; he had his new passport the next day. There was nothing that McKinsey, Accenture, or any other workflow consultant could have done to improve his experience. What’s the last date I can post this to to arrive in time for Christmas?

Hansen’s work provided a way to measure how variables interact without presuming a perfect knowledge of how risky they are. His methods have been used in finance and macroeconomics. As the last five years have shown, financial risk has profound effects on the real economy. But how and through what channels is not well understood; macroeconomists often make unrealistic assumptions about risk or ignore it altogether. But even though Hansen pioneered new ways of using data to understand macro models of the economy and finance, he stresses we should not overestimate what we know.

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